Lexington, KY - It's Oscar season, time to focus on great movies and great acting. Usually the two are inseparable. But, for whatever reason, not this year. In 2008, great performances have not automatically produced great pictures. A classic example is Heath Ledger's phenomenally eerie portrayal of the Joker in the disappointing "Dark Knight."
The same holds true among many of the other Oscar nominees this year. Despite breakout performances by such luminaries as Kate Winslet, Mickey Rourke, Sean Penn and Meryl Streep, their movies have not necessarily been greater than the sum of the individual parts.
This month, I continue my tradition of looking at the nominees for best picture, and predicting which one will win. Also, this year I'll take a stab at guessing the winners in the other major award categories as well.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The idea of living life in reverse makes for an intriguing premise. It was the subject of an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, and would have made an interesting half-hour episode of TV's old "Twilight Zone." But this screen version stretched out for a tedious two hours and 46 minutes. I appreciated the effort and technical wizardry that went into the making of this movie; it was truly fascinating to watch. And since it spanned the life and times of one man, with history playing out in the background, "Benjamin" had the feel of an epic picture Hollywood likes to reward. But the film lacked the fire, in my opinion, to ignite the passion of Oscar voters.
Frost/Nixon
The David Frost TV interviews of Richard Nixon in 1977 were a historical anecdote, an afterthought to a failed presidency many of us would rather forget. But if you dismissed the movie version of this event solely for those reasons, you missed what I felt deserved to win the best picture Oscar. Here were two men at a turning point in their lives, one trying to rescue his career, the other trying to salvage his legacy. But it was greater than just Frost and Nixon. It spoke to me about those moments in life when we're all forced to dig deep to prevail. Director Ron Howard created an iconic struggle that was surprisingly moving. And Frank Langella was uncanny in his portrayal of Richard Nixon. This was more than a dead-on impression. He inhabited the person of Richard Nixon.
Milk
Harvey Milk was the nation's first openly gay man to be elected to major public office. He overcame great odds, even in a city like San Francisco, to be elected to its City Council in 1977. The film, directed by Louisville native Gus Van Sant, chronicled his story. It mixed actual footage of the times with outstanding acting, including James Franco as Milk's partner and Josh Brolin as Milk's adversary - and later killer - Dan White. Above all, Sean Penn's amazing performance as the imperfect but driven hero held this movie together. But in the end, the film did not sufficiently explore the Dan White character to help make sense of the story's tragic outcome.
The Reader
In Germany in 1955, 16-year-old Michael and 33-year-old Hanna have a summer affair. But later, their paths cross again and we learn a disturbing secret from the woman's past. "The Reader" was an uncompromising and very adult story of moral ambiguities and difficult choices. But as compelling as the picture was, it merely set the stage for the astonishing acting of Kate Winslet. She was fearless as she took us through 30 tortured years in Hanna's life. There's a very good reason Kate Winslet continues to show up on best acting lists, regardless of the movie. She's incredible. With any other actress in the lead role, this film would not be in the running for best picture. That's how much Winslet contributed. I predict she will win the best actress Oscar, but "The Reader" will not win best picture.
Slumdog Millionaire
The old rags-to-riches tale took a dark turn in this story of a poor Indian boy's struggle to survive. The opening moments of the picture set the tough tone. A young game show contestant (Dev Patel) is being tortured by police to find out why he seems to know all the answers on the Hindi version of "Who Wants to be a Millionaire." As he tries to explain, the film flashes back to key moments in his violent and tragic life, an Oliver Twist tale of bitter childhood suffering and separation. Momentum is building for "Slumdog" to be this year's sleeper hit, and it certainly cleaned up at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. But, for me, "Slumdog" pushed the pedal of pathos too darn hard. This was a movie that took delight in being brutal. For me, its overly gritty elements kept this underdog from coming out on top.
My Predictions
Supporting Actress: Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler"
She's a lot more than Mona Lisa Vito in "My Cousin Vinny," and she's been proving that for some time now. Her performance in "The Wrestler" was brave, nuanced and heartbreaking.
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger in "Dark Knight"
If there is a sure thing in any of this year's Oscars, this is it.
Actress: Kate Winslet in "The Reader"
Her portrayal of a woman on the run from her troubled past was as brave and tough as any this year.
Actor: Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler"
If there is any justice at all, he will win this one hands down. His performance as an aging pro wrestler trying to make a comeback and redeem himself was simply stunning. Frank Langella and Richard Jenkins (in "The Visitor") just picked the wrong year to give the performances of their careers.
Director: Danny Boyle for "Slumdog Millionaire"
I sense a groundswell of support for "Slumdog" that should sweep Danny Boyle to an Oscar. My vote would be for Ron Howard for taking an obscure moment in history and turning it into a bigger and moving film. But my vote doesn't count.
Best Picture: "Slumdog Millionaire"
The little urchin from Mumbai will clobber the competition, including my personal favorite, "Frost/Nixon," to walk away with Oscar.
The 81st Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday, Feb. 22 from the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood and televised live by ABC (WTVQ-TV, Channel 36) at 8 p.m.