Lexington, KY - Once again, tensions in the Middle East are escalating towards conflict. With Iran believed by Israeli and Western intelligence agencies to be on the brink of developing nuclear weapons, Israel is making it clear that a preemptive military strike, with or without the support of the international community, is likely.
Indeed, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has stated publicly that he is concerned that Israel could attack Iran -without warning to the U.S.- as early as April or May to stop Tehran from building a nuclear bomb.
Such a conflict could have serious global repercussions.
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In this "Weekly Wire" series, is seeking information, insight and perspectives on the situation from experts living and working in central Kentucky.
Who's Who in the World and Who's Who in America.
University of Kentucky Senior Professor John Stempel was a career U.S. Foreign Service Officer from 1964 to 1988 who spent four tumultuous years in Iran (1975-79) as deputy chief of the political section of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. Dr. Stempel served as the fourth Director of the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce from 1993-2003. He has written and spoken extensively on foreign policy issues ranging from Islamic fundamentalism to state and local involvement in foreign affairs. He has been an expert consultant regarding the Middle East on regional and national television, and has more recently written on issues involving religion and diplomacy. Stempel is a member of the New York Council on Foreign Relations, the U.S. Department of Commerce District Export Council for Kentucky, and is listed in
Q: In your view, how likely is it that Israel will conduct a military strike on iran in the near future?
I'm pretty well convinced that we have told the Israelis privately that if they attack Iran first, they're on their own. On the other hand, if they wait for the Iranians to take or even severely threaten the first step, we will stand by them. Israeli Prime Minster Mr. Netanyahu is not well regarded by the American government.
Q: What is behind the sense of urgency from the Israeli perspective?
The Israelis fear that once Iran gets nuclear weapons they will not be able to count on their allies (read US) to defend them.
Iranian rhetoric over the years has indeed used terms like "destroy" and worse.
The US position is that the more rhetoric and threats the Iranians use, the
more likely they will make an attack likely.
Q: Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has been quoted in the media as stating that he anticipates an Israeli strike by June. What, in your view is a realistic expectation?
If there is any Israeli action forthcoming, which I doubt, something not now on the Horizon will have to trigger it.
Q: Can the U.S. and its allies in Europe and the region still be effective in dissuading the Israelis from carrying out a unilateral attack? Will economic sanctions work?
Only if the US were to guarantee Israelis borders from attack which would be hard for the US to do and harder still for the Israelis to believe.
Economic sanctions would not work if the Israelis were convinced the Iranian threat was sincere and strong.
All threatening of Israel would have to be done privately, but if the Israelis are determined to do it, economic sanctions will not work; they know the US would be dragged in eventually.
Q: How can Iran be expected to react to a military strike? Can proxies in the region such as Hezbollah be expected to respond in concert with the Iranians?
Iran will at first react with non-nuclear military strikes, including missile attacks, and they will encourage Hezbollah and all
other anti-Israeli folk to join them in a strike. Some may, most won't.
Q: Why should our readers care? What are the implications of such an event and how might they be felt here in Lexington, Kentucky?
Anytime two or more powers start fighting in the Middle East region, the danger of war spreading or escalating is very great. We will be mobilizing along with others, and hoping to keep matters tamped down.
Suggested additional reading on the subject:
Israel Blames Iran-Backed Terrorism for India, Georgia Bombs
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-14/israel-blames-iran-backed-terrorism-for-india-georgia-bombs.html
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Dealing With Iran
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/israel-iran-nuclear-_b_1254542.html