"Fidel Castro suffers a stroke and dies a day later. Pro-democracy demonstrators immediately organize outside of Havana. Brother Raul Castro assumes the presidency, and fearing infiltration of "invading forces from the north," places the army on high alert. Communications from Cuba grow spotty as "counter-revolutionary agitators" are rounded up, the government tightens its grip on the media and blogs in Cuba go silent. Buses stop running. Shops close. Rumors fly through the city that ministers have been sacked. Gunfire is heard in the distance.
In the ensuing chaos, thousands of Cuban-Americans in Florida hastily construct a makeshift "freedom flotilla" and attempt to sail to the country of their birth. President Bush appears on television calling for calm. The U.S. Navy warns its citizens that the vessel is unsafe and provocative. The U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Navy moves to stop the flotilla — as does the Cuban Air Force.
Suddenly cable news networks are processing unconfirmed reports that the aircraft carrier USS John F. Kennedy is sinking at sea. The Cuban government reports it has staved off an invasion by sinking several boats, seizing a weapons cache in the process. Protests in and out of Cuba grow in intensity. The Canadian ambassador is expelled. The Argentine government issues a warning to all its citizens to leave Cuba.
Diplomats from across the hemisphere rush to an emergency session of the Organization of American States (OAS), the international organization that lists Cuba as a member but has not allowed Cuba to participate in its affairs since 1962. The Venezuela delegation exploits the chaos of the situation and undercurrents of anti-American sentiment to prevent the United States from building a coalition of support. Shockingly, the American envoy to the OAS walks out of the room in disgust, leaving an empty chair, and prompts the remaining delegates to pass a resolution granting Cuba full participation in its affairs.
This scenario isn't from a Tom Clancy novel. It's this year's international crisis simulation from the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce — and it's not far-fetched.
The Patterson School spared no details in preparing the simulation. Participating students were given specific roles to play. The faculty set up sample Web sites, such as the "Caribbean News Network" and even a blog written by a fictional Spanish ex-pat who called himself "Havanna Hombre." Finally, just before the simulation began, the school welcomed Ambassador Edward O'Donnell, U.S. envoy to the OAS, to share some thoughts with the students on what they might expect.
Simulations like this are fairly common in the U.S. military and U.S. Department of State. Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, the director of the Patterson School, attended a similar simulation at the U.S. Army War College just weeks earlier. "The exercise we ran at the Patterson School was every bit as rigorous as that done by the Army, but our aim was two-fold," said Ambassador Cavanaugh, "not just to probe policy positions, but to also give our students a genuine sense of the challenges of multilateral diplomacy."
"This simulation was particularly important because it refers to an event that will happen, and in the near future," said Dr. Robert Farley, an assistant professor at the Patterson School who organized the simulation. "The situation is going to become incredibly complex in a very short period of time, as our students discovered. Different groups, both in Cuba and the United States, have different agendas and have recognized that this is a moment in which anything is possible."
While the sinking of an American aircraft carrier may not be in the cards — and in the simulation, that news ultimately turned out to be misinformation — the purpose of the exercise was to demonstrate that anything can happen. "This is going to create chaos, and in the end it could be quite difficult to sort out," said Farley. "Part of the point of the simulation was to show our students how quickly events could overtake policy, and how, nevertheless, we need to keep trying to make good policy. We also hope that they learned something about uncertain intelligence, deception and asymmetric information."
The students were wowed by the exercise. "I found the sim helpful mainly because of its realism," said Will Marshall, a graduate student who played the role of Venezuelan envoy. "I worked as an intern at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations in Geneva, and the meetings I attended there played out pretty close to the way things played out. It's also an incredibly powerful teaching tool about listening, bargaining, analysis of information and how to react to quickly changing events."
Jeremy Windus, who played the role of American envoy to the OAS, learned about dealing with incomplete information. "I saw my primary mission as stalling until firm orders came in from Washington. None ever came," said Windus. His decision to walk away from the table — in effect, refusing to participate in a decision that ran counter to U.S. interests — proved to be one of the defining moments of the simulation. Ambassador Cavanaugh had to "fire" Windus.
"This was the first time I've ever been fired from any job, real or otherwise, and it was a fantastic experience," said Windus. "It showed me the dangers of groupthink and the absolute necessity of never leaving an empty American chair. I have Patterson to thank for these lessons; only in a school as close and intimate as ours could I be fired by an ambassador."
Of course, the lessons learned at the Patterson School should also send a clear signal to global business. This isn't just an academic exercise. Political events have enormous financial ramifications, and businesses must understand the value of a well-trained and insightful diplomatic corps.
"In today's global marketplace, business is invariably affected by the political environment in which it operates — an environment shaped by the interplay among governments, consumers, nongovernmental organizations and the media," said Beth Jones, former U.S. Department of State assistant secretary of Europe and Eurasia. (Full disclosure: Jones is a colleague of this columnist at APCO Worldwide.) "Understanding this interplay can mean the difference between success and failure. And yet business decision-makers are often out of touch with what is percolating below the surface in countries and regions in which they operate. They are unprepared for shifting landscapes resulting from elections, coups, civil wars or other political events. Companies caught off guard risk short-term reversals and disruptions; in extreme instances, they can fall victim to nationalization of assets and loss of capital investments."
The annual Patterson School crisis simulation is, hopefully, the next great tradition from the University of Kentucky. The faculty is developing realistic scenarios that have an impact on diplomacy and business. As for next year's simulation, Professor Farley isn't giving many hints, but says, "Wellwe have some ideas."
David Wescott is a Lexington-based senior associate for APCO Worldwide, a global public affairs firm headquartered in Washington, D.C.
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