Louisville, KY - Once again, University of Kentucky (UK) College of Agriculture economists made their yearly agricultural estimates for the 2011-2012 seasons at this year's Kentucky Farm Bureau Annual Meeting and once again the news was good for the most part.

In fact, if their forecast is correct, Kentucky will reach an unprecedented milestone in farm cash receipts which should top out between $5.2 billion and $5.4 billion. This marks the first time in the state's history that ag receipts have made it over the $5 billion level. In 2010, officially, cash receipts totaled $4.4 billion.

UK Ag Economist Will Snell said the increase reflects the national picture, which will reach the $104 billion mark in net farm income, a record of its own. Kentucky's net farm income, while not be a record, bounced back from 2010 to rise above $1 billion this year from $780 million last year.

"It has been quite a year for U.S. agriculture. When we look at the overall economy, with very anemic economic growth, with high unemployment, with record deficits, it's certainly a challenge, but as we all know there's one sector out there that's doing very, very well and that's agriculture," he said. 'Basically, on the heels of very tight supplies and strong demand we're looking at record prices for crops and livestock the past year and even though we've had higher production expenses, for the first time in the history of U.S. agriculture, we're looking at over $100 billion of net farm income, up 28 percent from last year and 50 percent over a 10 year average."

Snell added that 90 percent of that net farm income originated from the market place.

Agricultural exports also figured prominently into 2011 farm income. Snell said globally, especially in Asia, there has been phenomenal economic growth. That, along with a low U.S. dollar has boosted the value of farm exports to record levels as well, while the strong farm economy coupled with low interest rates has resulted in increased farmland values.

In Kentucky, what once were the two largest sectors of the agriculture industry, tobacco and horses, have lost nearly $1 billion in value over the last decade. Still, Snell said it was "phenomenal" how Kentucky farmers have managed to sustain and grow cash receipts over that time period.

Solid gains came this year across the board from grains, cattle, horses, dairy and hogs with stability within the poultry and tobacco sectors, said Snell. The top ag sectors will likely be poultry and corn but not necessarily in that order. Snell emphasized that it is possible corn will rival poultry as the number one ag enterprise for 2011 depending on the timing of the corn sales.

UK College of Agriculture Dean Scott Smith said he first spoke to this gathering in 2001 and asked them to think about what changes have taken place in Kentucky agriculture since then.

"The thoroughbred industry was reeling from Reproductive Loss Syndrome; we were looking forward to the loss of the federal tobacco program; little did we know we were about to experience the worst economic downturn since World War II," he said. "Prospects were not what they are today to say the least. You saw numbers of $3 billion and $3.5 billion and wondered where we were going to be in 2011 and I am just delighted to see the number '5' floating around here today. I know there are problems and challenges ahead but the prospects have really turned around in 10 years and it's been a wonderful thing to watch."

The economists projected an even better 2012 with estimated cash receipts to reach another record of between $5.3 billion and $5.7 billion as long as the weather is favorable, the economy continues to recover and exports remain strong.

 While the official 2011 numbers from the USDA won't come out until next summer, the projections announced at the Farm Bureau conference show a continued strong farm economy in Kentucky and the country.