We hear a good deal about trends in business — market trends, financial trends, industry trends — and the impact they may have on individual businesses or the economy as a whole. Our success in predicting trends can have an important impact on our business success.
Technically, trends involve analyzing statistical data over a selected period of time and charting the progression. Practically, trends are patterns that appear to drive business activities. Annual trend projections have become the feature articles each January in such popular business magazines as Money, Entrepreneur and Forbes, as well as numerous industry specific publications.
Georgetown University Professor Rohit Bhargava, in his book “Non-Obvious: How to Think Different, Curate Ideas & Predict the Future,” suggests the reason most trend predictions are not accurate is that we ask the wrong questions.
Most predictions lack real insight and are based on the obvious. It doesn’t take an expert to predict trends, he claims. His goal is to show how anyone can use “the power of non-obvious thinking,” to grow their business and make a bigger impact in the world.
The author’s insights on future trends have been used by organizations such as Intel and the World Bank, among dozens of others.
Bhargava has gained a following during the last five years of releasing his “non-obvious” trends, in part by his insistence that non-experts can predict trends as accurately as those in the business. His book gives guidance on how to think different in order to understand today and therefore the future.
The author begins by explaining his process of trend curation — a methodology he says anyone can use to predict the future.
Curation, Bhargava says, is “the ultimate method of transforming noise into meaning.”
It is the process most of us unconsciously use daily to navigate information overload from a wide variety of media; we follow often obvious observations. However, when we find non-obvious patterns in the news stories we hear and see, we find trends that are often overlooked. To curate effectively is to look at trends on a timeline and scale that others don’t.
The author likens most trend predictions to New Year’s resolutions — usually vague and often lazy. Lacking in objectivity and creativity, they often have little application. According to the author, trend predictions have to do more than describe something that is happening. Curated predictions must indicate how a trend can be used. Trends must be actionable.
A worthwhile trend — a non-obvious one — is “an idea that describes the accelerating present in a new, unique way,” Bhargava says. Trend curators cultivate five habits:
1. Being curious: asking questions as to why things work and embracing new topics with wonder.
2. Being observant: seeing the details that most others miss. Among the ways to cultivate being more observant is to try explaining the world around you to children.
3. Being fickle: capturing ideas without the need to completely understand. Using a timer can force you to evaluate more quickly.
4. Being thoughtful: taking time to consider a particular point of view and express it with consideration. The author cites Tom Peters’ practice of asking or giving advice to his 20-year-old self.
5. Being elegant: cultivating the ability to describe concepts in a beautiful, unique way. Elegance often is synonymous with keeping things short, using as few words as possible.
The author presents “The Haystack Method,” for curating trends. First, focus on gathering numerous and seeming diverse stories and ideas (the hay) and then use them to define a trend (the needle). The needle is the trend that gives collective meaning to all the gathered hay.
Get into the habit of saving interesting ideas, the author says. Once you’ve completed that, aggregate or sort those ideas. Next, challenge yourself to think about the underlying themes of these ideas. Finally, name the trend in some memorable — and brandable — way.
Examples include “Likeonomics,” a mashup between likability and economics; and “Shoptimization,” a combination of shopping and optimization.
While the author believes anyone can predict the future, he also cautions that no matter what methods are used (including his) sometimes you will be wrong. However, that should be acceptable. Learning to predict the future has positive side effects: “You will become more curious, observant and understanding of the world around you.”
And that mental shift will not only make you a better predictor of the future, but also better able to see your own success.