Going to the races at Keeneland is always an October highlight in Lexington, but an added layer of excitement is coming this year as the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships will be held at the local track for the first time. The two-day event will feature 22 races in all, 14 of those being Breeders’ Cup races offering nearly $25 million in prize money.
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Ellis Star awaits post time at Keeneland Race Course. | Photo by Theresa Stanley
First run in 1984, the Breeders’ Cup has grown into a worldwide showcase of the best Thoroughbred racing has to offer, with many of the winners going on to be voted as yearly champions in their divisions. Two races of note are the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, which showcase some of the horses likely to be in contention for the 2016 Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. Other races, like the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, are expected to bring together horses that include Triple Crown Champion American Pharoah and the incredible mare Beholder, winner of 14 races in her career, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2012 and Breeders’ Cup Distaff in 2013.
With such a wide variety of races — races for both genders, on dirt and on grass, for young horses and older horses and at various distances — Breeders’ Cup provides an opportunity to see the top equine athletes bringing their “A” game and providing thrills, as well as the possibility for a life-changing score via the betting windows.
Tips for picking out contenders
In my job of handicapping races throughout North America, which includes publishing selections and feature race analysis, as well as engaging with groups throughout the year, I remind people that horses are athletes, with likes and dislikes, strengths and weakness. Therefore, the starting point in the process is to look for races in each horse’s past that are similar to today’s race to help determine if the horse might be a contender if his or her past efforts were repeated.
In handicapping Breeders’ Cup races, the task can become more difficult because most of the horses are at the top of their game, having won many of their recent races. Every Breeders’ Cup race is a grade I stakes, the highest level of competition. Therefore seeing which horses have won grade I races in the past, particularly at the distance and on the surface of today’s race, should get the highest consideration in the handicapping process.
For the races consisting of 2-year-olds, an additional tip is to look for horses that have continued to improve since their debuts. One way to do this is to observe whether their Equibase Speed Figures, the bolded two to three digit number for each race in the program, are improving – the higher the number, the better the performance. As with any race, but particularly with races on Breeders’ Cup weekend, determining which horses might be peaking at the right time can be the key to success and profit.
General betting advice
Breeders’ Cup weekend offers many opportunities for profit and many ways in every race to make money. In addition to the usual win, place and show bets, there are many bets within races and across races that provide the average fan the opportunity for a lottery-like result. For example, the .10 cent minimum superfecta, in which you win by successfully picking the first four horses, paid over $9,000 in two of the nine Saturday Breeders’ Cup races in 2014 and paid over $800 in three of the others. You can have a lot of fun and go for such a score by selecting five horses in a “.10 cent superfecta box” for a total cost of $12, winning the bet if any four of the five finish first through fourth. If you’re with a group and want to be a bit more adventurous, play a .10-cent six horse superfecta box, which has a cost of $36, giving yourself 360 chances to win.
Another wager I play a great deal is the pick-three, a bet in which we try to pick the winners of three races in a row. The base wagering amount is just 50 cents , so if you select three horses in each of three races you have 27 chances to win but the cost of the bet is just $13.50. Of course, there’s nothing wrong with sticking to win, place and show betting. The average $2 win payoff among the nine Breeders’ Cup races held on Saturday of last year was over $35.
The exacta, which has a $1 minimum, is also a fine bet to make throughout the day. To win the exacta you must select the first- and second-place horses in order, but the best way to play the bet is to play an “exacta box” (in which the order doesn’t matter) consisting of three or four horses. At the $1 minimum, a four-horse exacta box costs only $12. You win the bet if any two of the four horses finish first and second in any order, giving you a margin of error and still profiting nicely depending on the results..
To follow the action leading up to Breeders’ Cup weekend, sign up for the free Equibase Virtual Stable “Road to the Breeders’ Cup” Race Series, which will alert you regarding the activity of contenders for these races. cc