"Author and business guru Brian Tracy once said, "It's important that you spend time thinking about the future. You're going to be spending a lot of time there."
Mark Penn has spent his fair share of time thinking about the future. His new book, Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes, written with E. Kinney Zalesne, is less a portrait of a brave new world than an explanation of the factors that create it.
What Penn suggests is a departure from the megatrends of decades past. Instead, relatively small personal interest groups are creating our world. One percent of the American public, or about three million people, can become a significant trend — including social and political movements or business phenomenon.
It's a new and fascinating idea. Penn suggests that such microtrends are rooted in the Internet, which has created hundreds of thousands of specialized and special interest groups. While this has proven to be a source of frustration for other pollsters, trend-spotters and marketers, Penn uses it to enlighten us on the changes we are experiencing.
Prior to this book, Penn was perhaps best known for identifying the trend that became known as "soccer moms," while working as a pollster with President Bill Clinton. Now CEO of PR giant Burson-Marsteller, he is also chief adviser to the presidential campaign of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Microtrends is a business book more in the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point. Penn presents the evidence; it's up to the reader to think through it and draw conclusions.
Penn identifies 75 emerging microtrends and then cuts them into 15 bite-size chapters of similar areas, like "Technology," "Education," "Love, Sex and Relationships," "Food, Drink and Diet," and, of course, "Politics." It's a fascinating look at our current world and our future, well researched and written.
Among the microtrends he suggests are important:
Working Retired: "While conventional wisdom tells us that America's aging population is about to retire in record numbers, the truth is that many are choosing to remain in the workplace longer than ever," Penn says. This has implications for social security planning, the health care industry and numerous areas of business development.
Cougars: A cougar is a woman who dates significantly younger men. It signifies an older, single woman "who knows what she wants, has the money and confidence to acquire it, and isn't constrained by desires for babies and a white picket fence." Think 50-something Diane Keaton dating 30-something Keanu Reeves in the movie, Something's Gotta Give.
Commuter Couples: While telecommuting is definitely on the rise, there is also a trend toward the opposite: couples living apart due to job situations and using technology to connect to family. This holds true not only in the United States where couples may live in different cities, but internationally as well, due to the global job market.
Caffeine Crazies: At work, coffee drinkers are nearly one in four, up from one in six in 2003. Is it any surprise that Starbucks revenues grew from $1.7 billion in 1999 to $5.3 billion in 2004? This doesn't take into account other caffeinated drinks, such as carbonated beverages, which have an average consumption per person of 52 gallons per year. With an emphasis on stimulating energy and the 24/7 sleeplessness of American life, this trend doesn't appear to be culminating soon.
Numbers Junkies: Americans study less math and science, but are fascinated by how these areas support our lives. Degrees in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (known as STEM) are falling, making up only 27 percent of all degrees awarded in 2003-04. By contrast, China and India are graduating as many as 950,000 engineers a year.
Even if you're not a future-phile, this book is fascinating and fun. Some of it may sound familiar — like retirees working longer and the trend of stay-at-home workers. Other insights articulate new ways of understanding how Americans live that you may not have considered. The author successfully gathers the yarn from aspects of our contemporary life and weaves it into visible patterns for us to carefully handle and consider. His ability to see the small patterns of culture is nothing short of incredible.
If you want a fast-paced, well-written travelogue of a trip to the future, read Penn's book. It may just be the guidebook you need to see the future — and your place in it. "