LEXINGTON, KY - Two climate experts addressed global perspectives and Kentucky concerns at the recent Regional Climate Change Forum hosted by the Kentucky Science and Technology Corporation in Lexington. Nearly 200 people attended.
"By mitigating and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases we see huge changes in the impacts of extremes 30 or 40 years down the line," said the keynote speaker, Dr. Radley Horton of the Center for Climate Research at Columbia University. As an example of an extreme climactic event, he cited the 2003 heat wave that hit Europe and caused tens of thousands of deaths and a drought that took a heavy toll on agriculture. Horton said that slight rises in global mean or average temperature increases the probability of such extreme events.
Horton's area of expertise is in regional impacts of climate variability and climate change. His main tools are Global Climate Models (GCMs). He said that uncertainties abound in climate projections, but the science is clear that greenhouse gases from human activities are driving global climate change. Global climate warming has not slowed or stopped in recent years as some have claimed, he asserts. "Each year between 2001 and 2008 has been warmer than every single year in the last century, with the exception of 1998," he said. He explained that the extreme warmth of 1998 was partially attributable to an exceptionally strong El Nino, which tends to boost global surface air temperatures.
Over 30 states have Climate Change Action Plans in place designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Now states are establishing Climate Change Adaptation Plans. Horton gave the example of Mayor Bloomberg having New York City's storm surge pumps elevated in order to be ready for potential ocean rises and increased storm surges. Horton says that adaptation plans should not lead to a backing-off from mitigation (reducing emissions and carbon sequestration). He spoke about potential impacts and vulnerabilities that climate change poses for Kentucky. He pointed out that with heat waves a small increase of temperature increases energy load, which may lead to power outages. More intense precipitation in some areas could lead to more flooding and reduced water quality. Other areas in the state could be more vulnerable to droughts and water shortages. These are the kinds of extremes projected to increase with climate change and that come under public risk management. Other Kentucky concerns include the possibilities of livestock suffering increased thermal stress, changes in forage, infectious insects moving norhward, and ecosystem impacts from drought and invasive species.
Potential extreme drought in Kentucky is a chief concern of Stuart Foster, Kentucky's state climatologist and director of the KY Climate Center at Western Kentucky University. "If we do get into more extreme climate events to where we would have more intense droughts that persist over at two or three year period, I'm not convinced we're well prepared for that," Foster said. Normally the state will recover from a drought over the winter, he said, but if that failed to happen, Kentucky could be faced with a dire situation. He noted Kentucky's drought of 2007 that reduced crop yields, stressed fish, wildlife and livestock, and increased power demand.
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"We cannot look at climate change issues based solely on what happens in Kentucky," Foster said. "We have to look at what is happening globally." Foster told that during the conference a number of people remarked to him that growing seasons have been getting longer, which agrees with his observations of warmer springs and falls. But for the most part, he said, a Kentucky farmer can look out his window and see pretty much the conditions he's always seen. This can lead to skepticism regarding climate change and distrust of climate scientists that address global issues. Foster's work is focused on Kentucky's climate and weather, but he's concerned about what he sees as disrespect for the climatologists focused on the global climate. "They're knowledgeable people that have spent their lives working on these things," Foster said to Business Lexington. "You have to give them some credibility that they have a pretty good sense of what they're talking about and pretty good reason to be confident. The bottom line is that people who are skeptical and say we don't want to do anything until we know for sure, then the odds are that by the time folks are comfortable that we know for sure - it would probably be too late to do much. There are a number of examples in the real world of systems or situations where something goes wrong, than when you hit a threshold, you hit a key point, things change dramatically, and you can't necessarily go back and just fix it."
While Global Climate Models use data and statistics to view probabilities of future scenarios with climate change, direct observation shows what's already happening. As Foster noted, the changes in Kentucky have not been dramatic. Global changes tell a different story. Scientists predict the summer Arctic icecap will completely melt within 20 years. Climate change is causing Ice Shelf Disintegration events in Greenland and Antarctica, leading to glacier acceleration (ice loss), which raises sea levels. Sea levels that have risen eight inches over the last 150 years, as measured by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, are rising at increased rates in recent decades due to increasing thermal expansion of water molecules and melting of continental ice sheets. Climate change is also exacerbating desertification of drylands across the world. Though Kentucky is not directly affected by rising sea levels, and though it may not be so vulnerable to desertification as southern and southwestern states, projections suggest an increase in climate hazard impacts and indirect effects from more distressed regions. "It's been made very clear that there's a high probability that 50 years from now, a hundred years from now, things in the environment may be radically different," said Foster. "And the data is pointing more and more in that direction." Foster also acknowledges that conditions in Kentucky could be much better than in other regions of the country, making it a more desirable immigration destination. He said improvements to infrastructure and water management would better prepare the state for such a future. Meanwhile, Foster is overseeing Kentucky Mesonet ( http://www.kymesonet.org ), the construction of 100 monitoring stations that will collect near real-time weather and climate information across the state.