Lexington, KY - Once again, tensions in the Middle East are rapidly escalating towards conflict. With Iran believed by Israeli and Western intelligence agencies to be on the brink of developing nuclear weapons, Israel is making it clear that a preemptive military strike, with or without the support of the international community, is on the table.
Indeed, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has told a Washington Post columnist that he is concerned that Israel could attack Iran -without warning to the U.S.- between now and June.
This with Syria seemingly on the brink of all-out civil war and unrest continuing in Egypt.
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In light of the gravity, is looking to sharp minds in the Central Kentucky region who follow these events for information, insight and perspective.
In this initial installment, we posed two questions to Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, Director of the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky.
In your view, how likely is it that Israel will conduct a military strike on iran in the near future?
Cavanaugh:"While there is no doubt that this option is being debated in Jerusalem, I believe a preemptive military assault to destroy Iran's nuclear program remains unlikely in the near term.
There is substantial disagreement about whether such an attack would serve Israel's interest, but little doubt that it would elicit a retaliatory Iranian response, disrupt international energy markets, spur further terrorist acts, and might trigger a broad conflict in the region.
The economic consequences for America's European partners, -- still struggling with the Eurozone crisis - could be particularly catastrophic."
What is behind the sense of urgency from the Israeli perspective?
Cavanaugh:"Since the 1990s, we have heard speculation that Iran might develop a nuclear weapons potential in 12-18 months.
Today's urgency stems not from concerns that an Iranian nuclear weapon is imminent, but from an understanding that soon a successful preemptive military strike will not be possible.
Iran is now protecting its nuclear efforts by dispersing operations and moving storage of nuclear materials into heavily fortified facilities.
This is not Iraq in 1981 or Syria in 2007.
An attack today would be a far more complex undertaking with daunting potential political, economic, and military repercussions.
Even if an Israeli strike was a tactical success, the overall action would almost certainly be a strategic blunder, building sympathy and support for Iran throughout the region and beyond.
Most experts doubt that any Israeli attack could do more than delay Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Nevertheless, comments by Israeli leaders regarding the sense of urgency and possible unilateral military action have had some positive impact.
This saber rattling has played a role in pushing the US and several European states to speak with a common voice, exerting significant diplomatic pressure and enacting increasingly harsh sanctions against the Tehran regime."
Carey Cavanaugh served for 22 years as a Foreign Service officer with the U.S. Department of State. In addition to Washington assignments in the State Department, Pentagon and on Capitol Hill, Ambassador Cavanaugh served in Berlin, Moscow, Tbilisi, Rome, and Bern. He joined the Patterson School in 2006, where he is also professor of diplomacy and conflict resolution. He continues to work periodically on special assignments for the State Department's Inspector General.
Note:
Recommended reading on the subject:
New York Times writer Ronen Bergman
Will Israel Attack Iran?
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/magazine/will-israel-attack-iran.html?pagewanted=all
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Reuters reporter Parisa Hafezi
Iran shrugs off latest U.S. sanctions, trade suffers
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/us-iran-idUSTRE81614C20120207