When the initial offspring of American Pharoah begin their racing careers as 2-year-olds later this year, the entire industry will be watching. To say that expectations are high is an understatement. The 2015 Triple Crown winner retired from racing as the first horse to accomplish this elusive feat since Affirmed swept the series in 1978. His first year at stud, American Pharoah’s introductory fee was set at a reported $200,000. In 2017, 10 little American Pharoahs sired by the famed Thoroughbred were purchased at auction for as much as $1 million, with the least expensive going for $230,000. In 2018, 70 of his yearlings were also well received at auction, with seven selling for at least $1 million. Clearly the purchasers believed that American Pharoah’s offspring possessed all of the desirable traits of the Triple Crown winner, but the true test comes when they take to the racetrack.
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Courtesy of Coady Photography/Churchill Downs
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Courtesy of Godolphin
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Courtesy of Coady Photography/Churchill Downs
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Courtesy of Ashford Stud
Depending on his progeny’s performance, American Pharoah’s stud fee and demand as a sire could fluctuate wildly. Or it might not. Not unlike handicapping a horse race, a stallion can have all of the ingredients for success—including a prominent pedigree, athletic build, winning record and a date book filled with quality mates—and still not perform as expected. Winning a prestigious race like the Kentucky Derby or even capturing the Triple Crown also doesn’t guarantee success at stud.
High-profile stallions are syndicated into multiple shares that provide each owner with a set number of breedings—known as seasons—per year. The partners have the option of breeding their own mares or selling one or more of their seasons to approved outsiders. Breeding time begins in mid-February (typically around Valentine’s Day) and extends into June, but breeders generally are not obligated to pay the fee until their foals are born the following spring.
Since stud fees rise and fall in direct proportion to their offspring’s performance, setting that first-year fee can be crucial to a horse’s immediate and subsequent popularity. Those who manage a stallion’s breeding career seek both quality and quantity in terms of mates, especially for the first crop. An array of racers at the track also increases the probability that a high-profile runner will call attention to his or her sire.
All high-profile stallions start their breeding careers on relatively even terms, with expert caretakers in the barns and pedigree specialists in the office recruiting the finest matches. Predicting a stallion’s effectiveness is an educated guess based in part on the history of genetic patterns, with strong doses of luck and intuition.
After American Pharoah won the Triple Crown in 2015, breaking a 37-year drought, Justify matched the accomplishment by winning the Triple Crown in 2018. He begins his breeding career this year at Ashford Stud in Versailles, which is also home to American Pharoah. A breeding to Justify in 2019 is $150,000, according to his advertised fee, a price that can change through negotiation and supply and demand. American Pharoah’s current stud fee is listed as private. As a point of reference, proven sires War Front and Tapit are among the world’s most sought-after stallions. They sport fees of $250,000 and $225,000, respectively.
Comparing American Pharoah and Justify (whose first foals will be born in 2020) to past Triple Crown heroes or even to historical Derby winners is largely irrelevant because of the vast changes in the Thoroughbred industry—most notably the expansion of opportunity and how many more mares sires cover these days. When Affirmed, 1973 Triple-Crown winner Secretariat and 1977 winner Seattle Slew left the track, they generally were bred to no more than 50 mares each per year. From his first year at stud in 2016, American Pharoah’s mates produced 163 foals in America.
Among the past 20 Kentucky Derby winners, 2007 victor Street Sense is among the priciest at $50,000, thanks to his descendants’ winning ways. At the opposite extreme is the curious story of 2002 winner War Emblem. Exported to Japan with high expectations, he showed virtually no interest in courtship and sired only a few foals. He returned to Kentucky in 2016 for retirement at Old Friends Equine in Georgetown after being gelded to comply with complicated import regulations.
Smarty Jones, who won the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and lost the Triple Crown by a length in the Belmont Stakes, began his stud career in Kentucky in 2005 with a $100,000 breeding fee. He is now in his birth state of Pennsylvania at $3,500. In between, his seasonal residence varied between the two states and included several months of breeding in Uruguay.
Stud fees can also vary based on different marketing strategies. The 2014 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner California Chrome, whose first youngsters were born in 2018, began his stud career with a $40,000 fee. Unlike Justify, who retired as a 3-year-old after going undefeated in six starts, California Chrome left the track as a 6-year-old with 27 starts and 16 wins and earnings of nearly $15 million. But while Justify is a son of a renowned sire with other blue bloods in his pedigree, California Chrome’s lineage is more blue collar than blue blood. Therefore, the promotional strategy for optimizing his stallion potential included an attractive stud fee.
The first predictors of the stallion as a progenitor are the foals born nearly a year after conception. When they are 10 months old in autumn, many will go to high-end auctions where buyers determine their worth as potential racehorses. Shoppers have other opportunities over the following year when the youngsters head to yearling auctions.
By this time next year, there will be a much clearer picture of American Pharoah’s value, and his pricing will fluctuate in direct proportion to how his sons and daughters compete at the track. He could be the next Tapit or he could be among those with more budget friendly stud fees. Only time will tell.