While the question “Who’s your Derby horse?” has become common on the backstretch at Keeneland, it’s possible you don’t have your picks lined up just yet. While I am far from a professional handicapper, the list below may catch you up in time to follow the pre-race commentary on NBC.
Barring any last-minute illness or injuries, the field will be as follows:
2012 Kentucky Derby (Grade 1): Saturday, May 5, post time 6:34 p.m. 1 1/4 miles on the dirt, open to both males and females. Entries are limited to 20, and are determined by graded stakes earnings.
Alpha: He’s royally bred for a longer race like the Derby, and he had a tough trip in his last race – he ran second in the Wood Memorial to Gemologist, but was jostled considerably at the start and really dug in through the stretch. He’ll be there at the end.
Gemologist: He’s been steadily building toward this race for months now and we saw in the Wood Memorial that he has both a great closing kick (horses that try to lead start to finish usually find that difficult to manage over this distance, which is about 1/8 of a mile more than most of them have run before now…those that sit away from the lead and storm the group in the stretch do best). Owner Winstar Farm and trainer Todd Pletcher are known for quality. My only concern is his setback earlier this year into allowance company from stakes races; the timing was odd, and it’s a blip on the radar that I’m still not comfortable with. Overall, he definitely has a shot to win.
Bodemeister: He had by far the most visually impressive prep race of any horse here, smashing the Arkansas Derby field by nine lengths. What gave me chills was that he was still picking up speed the further along he went – a great sign for a longer race like the Kentucky Derby. Only concern here is that he likes to run toward the front of the pack; a lot of the horses in this year’s field prefer that, so he might run into some traffic.
Optimizer: Has the least graded earnings of anyone here. There’s a reason why – he’s not ready for this one.
Creative Cause: I usually throw out horses that prep for Derby exclusively in California, because races there tend to be more speed-focused, and it seems that they have trouble settling down in longer, slower races like the Derby generally is. This year’s field will make Derby fractions quick though, and he’s proven he can hold back in fifth or six early on and still win. Worth a show bet.
I’ll Have Another: I stand by my statement about horses prepping exclusively in California – plenty of good horses have come out of the state, but I think the competition he’ll face in Louisville will force him to reconsider his front-running style, particularly since he’ll be crossing over 18 other horses at the start to get to the front of the pack.
Hansen: He’s being called “The Great White Hope.” This guy is a fan favorite, and with a distinctive charm and a proud, outspoken, proud, it’s easy to see why. I like him. I do. I don’t think his performance at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes was a bad prep for the Derby even though he didn’t win it, but I worry about his pedigree – he really isn’t bred to go farther than 1 1/8 miles. I think the Derby will be too long for him.
Union Rags: Every year, there’s a horse like this one. Big, beautiful, turning in dazzling performance after dazzling performance. Every year they get all the attention, become the betting favorite and promptly lose to someone no one saw coming. That’s really the only thing I can say against him ... that and I’ve heard he isn’t handling the Churchill surface so well in workouts. You’ll hear a lot about him but I’d stay away.
Went The Day Well: Owner Team Valor, Intl. won the Derby last year with Animal Kingdom, and this colt was a bit of a last-minute qualifier for 2012. Barry Irwin said recently that he thinks the horse is capable of winning, but thinks he may be about one race away from his big break…and he’s out of time for prep races.
Take Charge Indy: Royally bred boy who can absolutely go the distance. He really didn’t do much up until his last start in the Florida Derby, where he beat superstar Union Rags with a decided drive. He likes to be on the lead early though, which is a concern. It’s possible Florida was a fluke; it’s also possible that he’s starting to hit his stride, just at the right time of the year. Churchill veteran Calvin Borel will be aboard…and you just can’t bet against Calvin.
El Padrino: He was no factor in the Florida Derby against Take Charge Indy and Union Rags. He had a nice win in February and is with 2010 Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, but overall his record is a bit of a mixed message so far.
Dullahan: Won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in spectacular fashion, but the Blue Grass isn’t necessarily great preparation for the Derby. It’s run over an artificial surface, while Churchill has a traditional dirt surface and it’s rare that a horse runs equally well on both. I liked his style, but I think he’s happier on Keeneland’s track than anywhere else.
Daddy Long Legs: The international contingent. This colt’s last start was a win in the United Arab Emirates Derby – he ran at 1 3/16 miles, which is the closest any of these horses have come to running 1 1/4 miles. The flight here from Dubai is tough on horses, though, and he’s coming out of the far inside post, a prime place to get crowded.
Done Talking: Struggled in March in the Gotham Stakes, but came back to win the Illinois Derby. He ran well as a closer there, but his competition Saturday will be harder than what he faced in Illinois.
Daddy Nose Best: One of the best names in the field. His list of preps didn’t exactly give him a taste of tough competition. He is a closer though, and trainer Steve Asmussen knows how to get the best performance out of his horses. Keep an eye on him.
Liaison: Hasn’t won since December. Great connections but he’s already lost to several horses in this field before and is starting as far away from the rail as he possibly can.
Prospective: The last time he ran at Churchill, he came dead last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But that was in November. He’s demonstrated that he’s not a fan of Polytrack, but seems to like the dirt at Tampa Bay in Florida, where he has a win and a second. His competition there, however, was not as tough as what he’ll find on Saturday. He could be a sleeping threat.
Rousing Sermon: Already soundly beaten by several horses in this field.
Sabercat: Already soundly beaten by several horses in this field and starting on the far outside of the track.
Trinniberg: His preps have all been in sprint races of 7/8 of a mile or less. He did pretty well, but that’s not much of a segue into the Derby’s 1 1/4 miles. I bet he’ll be a great one to watch in sprinting stakes this summer and fall. Wouldn’t look too hard for him here.